While it’s a bit early to officially say how Disney’s latest “live-action reimagining” will perform in theaters, early estimates have been posted. Remember that ‘The Little Mermaid’ will be opening over Memorial Day weekend, so totals will be listed as a three-day traditional and a four-day opening.
According to various reports, the domestic estimates for ‘The Little Mermaid’ are in the $70M- $90M three-day range and about $110M for the four-day range.
This is on par with other live-action reimaginings we’ve seen. “Aladdin,” for example, did $91.5M in its three-day opening weekend and $116.8M for four days. However, it’s not likely to beat other reimaginings like ‘Beauty and the Beast‘ ($170M,) ‘Maleficent‘ ($175.5M,) or ‘The Lion King‘($191.8M opening weekend.)
But it’s more than we saw with ‘Cinderella‘ ( $70.1M.) So ‘The Little Mermaid’ will likely land somewhere in the middle.
Here are some of the recent live-action films with opening, three-day weekend theatrical numbers for comparison:
Cruella – $21.5M
Maleficent Mistress of Evil – $37M
Cinderella – $67.9M
Maleficent – $69.4M
(The Little Mermaid will likely land here for three-Day)
Aladdin – $91.5M ($116.8 four-day total)
Jungle Book – $103.3M
Beauty and the Beast – $174.7M
The Lion King – $191.7M
That being said, it will likely perform better than some of the recent Disney and Pixar animated films like ‘Lightyear” ($51M) and ‘Strange World’ ($18.7M.)
We can’t compare “apples to apples” with the new live-action releases as the last couple has gone direct to Disney+, including “Pinocchio” and “Peter Pan and Wendy.” The closest I can compare it to recently would be “Mulan” or “Cruella,” but those films did not get a proper theatrical run due to the pandemic.
Going by comments and other media outlets, the film’s most significant drawback to audiences seems to be how Disney portrayed Scuttle, Sebastian, and Flounder in live-action. It might be too much “uncanny valley” for some audiences.
Again, it’s too early to tell what the box office will do. It’s possible it could go much higher or lower than expected. But now, it’s sitting somewhere in the middle of Disney’s ‘live-action’ theatrical releases.
Besides the “uncanny valley” issue, many are tired of the live-action reimaginings and would rather watch the original animation.
What do you think? Comment and let us know!
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