Shang-Chi Could Break Labor Day Weekend Box Office Record– It Wouldn’t Take Much


News outlets are now talking about how ‘Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings’ could break the Labor Day Weekend Box Office record.  Before you get excited, just know the “record” was set by 2007’s ‘Halloween’ at only $30.6 million.

Anything for the spin right?

Labor Day is traditionally a time when movies don’t debut because they don’t perform all that well during that holiday as people are usually out and about enjoying the last days of summer and wrapping it up for the season.

Most studios avoid a major release on that weekend. Marvel and Disney are doing it and the spin being presented is “Biggest Labor Day Weekend Box Office.”  Well it would be surprising if a Marvel movie didn’t beat $30.6 million, but stranger things have happened.

Even films like ‘Antman’ did over $76 million.

How much more is ‘Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings’ estimated to make?

Not much. The estimates are only at about $45-$50 million for the weekend. ‘Black Widow’ had a split release with Disney+ and still did over $80 million domestically when it opened.  Previously it was set at $35-$55 million, so it actually seems they dropped it some.

According to Shang-Chi will also be playing in 66% of the international territories and they expect another $40 million for a total $90-$100 million total for both domestic and International.  Again, just domestically ‘Black Widow’ made $80 million and it was released on Disney+ Premier Access at the same time and that total is not counted in the $80 million.

The International market that ‘Shang-Chi is releasing to does not include the large box office in China, that Disney and Marvel have been pushing this movie for. It could do well there, but early indications are that many weren’t too impressed with the trailer and felt it leaned on stereotypes.

If $45-$50 million is a “win” I hate to see what a “loss” is.

If it doesn’t do well the reason given won’t be because of things like him being a relatively unknown character or brand fatigue, it will be the pandemic and the “Delta variant.” I’m sure it’s a little bit of all those reasons.

For the team that made the film I do sincerely hope it blows past expectations because they worked hard. But the reality is that this film might end up at the bottom of the MCU box office chart.

Again, it will all be about how Disney and Marvel spin it next week.

What do you think? Comment and let us know.


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