Orlando Area’s Coronavirus “Peak Date” Moves Into May, But the ‘Curve’ is Flattening


The latest model for predicting when the “peak” of the Coronavirus will hit the Orlando area has now been moved to May 3rd “for peak hospital resources” and May 6th “for its deadliest day,” when they estimate when 128 people will die.

This date has changed three times already according to Jared Moskowitz, Director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management:

Here in Florida we are very used to watching modeling similar to a hurricane track that changes. The IMHE model [for peak date] has changed on Florida three times already. … We continue to watch that model as data is gathered and we will continue to prepare accordingly.

But there is good news.

It appears that the curve is beginning to flatten according to Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings “We are seeing some deceleration or leveling off in our cases in the area,” he said. “The numbers …. have been really encouraging.

Of course this does not mean everything will open and go back to normal, it simply means that social distancing is working in reducing the number of cases and lowering the number of deaths.

The numbers are going down:

According to the Orlando Sentinel the original IHME model released on March 31st projected “between 2,281 and 15,333 deaths, or a median of 6,937 total deaths, from COVID-19 through Aug. 4.”

Now the updated figures “shows Florida could see between about 1,200 and 13,700 deaths with a median of 4,748.” As of April 13, Florida has had 499 deaths and more than 21,000 cases.

Osceola County has had five deaths and 333 cases as of Monday. The model forecasts 51 deaths with a low of 13 and a high of 147. At its peak predicted on May 3, the county could be using between 18% and 56% of its ICU beds and up to 17% percent of hospital beds overall.

Even nationally the numbers have been lowered due to the closures of businesses, public places, social distancing and other extreme measures.

Of course “The model is based on the assumption that social distancing measures will remain in place through the end of May.

We still have a long road ahead, but the measures seem to be working. I wouldn’t expect the parks to open anytime in May, and even after the social distancing measures are lifted, it could be weeks until the parks are ready to re-open. It could even be July till we get the parks to re-open.

What do you think? Comment and let us know!

Source: Orlando Sentinel

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